Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded Samsonite's revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 due to weak consumer sentiment amid U.S. tariff uncertainties, with target price reduced by 20% to HKD 20, indicating a 30% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Samsonite's Q1 2025 net sales were USD 797 million, a 4.5% year-on-year decline at constant exchange rates; adjusted EBITDA was USD 128 million with a margin of 16.0%, down from 18.8% in the same period last year; adjusted net profit was USD 52 million, compared to USD 87 million last year [2] - Sales and profit margins fell short of expectations primarily due to underperformance in Asia and misalignment of wholesale orders in North America, although stable European performance and cautious marketing spending mitigated some impacts [2] Group 2: Management Insights - Management noted strong performance of the Tumi brand in China and indicated that sales growth in Q2 2025 so far is similar to Q1 2025 [3] - They expect stable gross margins in Q2 2025, with slight improvement in adjusted EBITDA margins; no significant pre-stocking behavior was observed in the luggage industry compared to other consumer goods [3] - As of Q1 2025, 14% of products sold in the U.S. were sourced from China, with expectations to reduce this to 1%-5% by the end of 2025 due to potential tariff increases, prompting the company to implement several measures [3] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategy - Management believes that a projected 5% growth in global passenger numbers in 2025 could indicate growth potential for luggage demand, given the historical correlation between Samsonite's sales and global travel [3] - As of Q1 2025, the company returned USD 350 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, resulting in a net leverage ratio of 1.8 times [3] - The company is actively pursuing a dual listing in the U.S. and is closely monitoring market conditions [3]
中金：维持新秀丽(01910)“跑赢行业”评级 降目标价至20港元