90天窗口期引爆海运抢运潮：运价短期内或涨20%，航运股已先行大涨

Core Viewpoint - The return of "normal" cargo volumes and the upcoming peak season indicate a strong rise in freight rates in the near future [1][6] Group 1: Market Trends - The Dow Jones Transportation Average has risen over 7% this week, with shipping giants Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd increasing by nearly 11% and 12.5% respectively [1] - Shipping companies have strategically rearranged vessels and canceled some capacity since mid-March to adapt to recent demand declines, but the suspension of tariffs has paved the way for the return of "normal" cargo volumes, leading to expectations of significant increases in spot freight rates [1][6] Group 2: Tariff Changes and Impact - The U.S. has revoked a total of 91% tariffs on Chinese goods and modified other tariffs, creating a 90-day window for shippers to increase shipments, which is expected to exert upward pressure on freight rates [3] - Shipping companies have shifted capacity from trans-Pacific routes to other routes, and the reallocation of capacity will take time, potentially leading to higher transportation costs for shippers when volumes rebound [3][4] Group 3: Capacity Adjustments - Maersk has transferred 20% of its capacity from trans-Pacific routes to other routes, and the recovery of normal operations remains a significant challenge, with expectations that full recovery may not occur until 2025 [4][5] - The weekly capacity on trans-Pacific routes has decreased from 570,000 TEU in January to 525,000 TEU recently, representing an 8% decline, with an additional 60,000 TEU weekly capacity canceled, marking an 11% drop [5] Group 4: Freight Rate Projections - Global container freight rates have significantly decreased from the peak in 2021, with the Drewry World Container Index showing a drop to $2,076 per 40-foot container, the lowest since December 2023, down 80% from the September 2021 peak of $10,377 [6] - Analysts predict that the return of "normal" cargo volumes and the upcoming peak season will lead to a strong increase in freight rates, with the 90-day agreement period coinciding with the back-to-school season [6][7] Group 5: Market Dynamics - Average spot freight rates from China to the U.S. West Coast have dropped 56% since January 1, while rates to the East Coast have decreased by 48% [7] - Demand surges are expected to trigger a significant rise in freight prices, with potential increases of 20% for routes from China to the U.S. West Coast in the short term [7] - Larger and more stable importers are likely to benefit the most during the upcoming peak season, while smaller shippers may face disadvantages as shipping providers prioritize high-value customers [7]