与中国医药产业脱钩？美药企成本或将增加一半

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. pharmaceutical industry heavily relies on Chinese raw materials, and any forced decoupling could significantly increase costs for American drug companies, potentially by 50% [1][12]. Group 1: U.S. Dependency on Chinese Raw Materials - In 2019, only 12% of raw materials for drugs in the U.S. were produced domestically, indicating a high reliance on imports [2]. - China accounts for approximately one-third of the global raw material supply, with exports growing from $23.6 billion in 2013 to $51.79 billion in 2022 [2]. - The U.S. pharmaceutical industry is particularly dependent on Chinese imports for various bulk raw materials, including antibiotics and vitamins [3]. Group 2: Cost Implications of Decoupling - If the U.S. government encourages drug manufacturing to return domestically, it may lead to a shift of orders from China, impacting Chinese pharmaceutical exports [1]. - The cost of producing raw materials in the U.S. is expected to rise significantly, making it challenging to achieve lower drug prices [2][12]. - Outsourcing to countries like China can save U.S. companies 60%-75% in costs compared to domestic production [11]. Group 3: China's Competitive Advantage - China's raw material production benefits from scale and lower labor costs, making it difficult for the U.S. to replace this supply [2][6]. - The number of Drug Master Files (DMF) submitted by Chinese companies increased by 57.7% from 2023 to 2024, showcasing China's growing competitiveness in raw material supply [4]. - China's industrial foundation in basic and fine chemicals supports its raw material production, which is not easily replicable in the U.S. due to industrial hollowing [6]. Group 4: Innovation and Outsourcing Trends - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry is increasingly involved in global drug development, with a significant rise in prepayment transactions involving Chinese companies [7][8]. - The CXO (Contract Research Organization) model is gaining traction, allowing U.S. companies to outsource R&D and production to China, which offers lower costs and higher efficiency [8][9]. - In 2024, approximately 30% of FDA-approved drug workflows were outsourced to Chinese CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) companies [10]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The U.S. drug pricing issue is compounded by the profit distribution among pharmaceutical companies, insurers, and other stakeholders, making it difficult to achieve lower prices without addressing these structural issues [12][13]. - If the U.S. were to decouple from China, Chinese pharmaceutical companies would need to focus on domestic markets, innovation, and diversifying into other markets [14].