地缘局势趋缓叠加中长期供应过剩矛盾难解，国际油价跌超2%

Group 1 - The global trade conflict easing has led to a rebound in oil prices, but subsequent price movements will be primarily influenced by geopolitical situations and OPEC+ production levels [1][4] - As of May 15, international oil prices experienced a significant drop, with WTI crude oil futures at $61.72 per barrel, down over 2.2%, and Brent crude oil futures at $64.66 per barrel, down 2.15% [1] - Positive signals from US-Iran nuclear negotiations have emerged, with Iran's willingness to sign a nuclear agreement under certain conditions, which may lead to the lifting of economic sanctions [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ has officially started its long-awaited production increase process, with an agreement to raise output by 41.1 thousand barrels per day from May to June, despite a lower-than-expected increase in April [2] - OPEC has maintained its oil demand growth forecast for the next two years, projecting a global oil demand increase of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026, while also revising down its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.9% [2] - The international oil market's trading logic is shifting, with factors such as reduced US tariff pressures and ongoing sanctions against oil-producing countries contributing to price dynamics, while OPEC+ production increases and potential easing of US-Iran tensions present downside risks [4]