Why Archer Aviation Stock Is a No-Brainer Buy Below $15

Core Viewpoint - Archer Aviation is positioned as a key player in the emerging electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) market, targeting both commercial air taxi routes and defense applications, with the potential to grow into a multibillion-dollar business within three to five years [1] Financial Performance - Archer Aviation has a prospective order backlog of $6 billion, nearly matching its current market capitalization of $6.1 billion, indicating strong demand for its aircraft [2] - The company reported over $1 billion in cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q1 2025, providing a solid financial foundation for its growth plans [7] - Operating expenses for Q1 were $113.1 million (non-GAAP), reflecting disciplined spending as the company approaches commercialization [7] - At the current burn rate, Archer Aviation has approximately 2.5 years of runway before needing additional capital, allowing time to achieve cash-flow-positive operations [8] Commercialization Strategy - Archer Aviation is focusing on the UAE as its first market, with plans to deliver its inaugural commercial Midnight aircraft this summer [10] - The company has secured design approval for its first hybrid heliport in Abu Dhabi, a significant regulatory milestone [10] - The "Launch Edition" program targets premium operators, with Abu Dhabi Aviation and Ethiopian Airlines as initial customers, validating the strategy of focusing on sophisticated operators [11] Valuation Insights - Archer Aviation's shares are currently trading at a valuation equivalent to its entire $6 billion order book, presenting a compelling entry point for investors [12] - Applying a conservative 1.37x multiple to the order book suggests a valuation of approximately $15 per share, while a more realistic 2x multiple indicates a fair value around $24 per share [13][15] - The partnership with Palantir Technologies positions Archer Aviation as a high-growth tech company, which may not be fully recognized by the market, leading to a valuation disconnect [14][15]