英国央行转鹰降息预期大幅降温

Group 1 - The Bank of England's recent policy stance has turned hawkish, significantly reducing expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a June cut dropping from 50% to 4% [1] - Market expectations have shifted towards a greater likelihood of a rate cut in the third quarter, with current bets for an August cut averaging around 16 basis points (64%) [1] - The upcoming inflation reports may influence market expectations, with a potential downward surprise in inflation data possibly shifting sentiment back towards a dovish outlook [1] Group 2 - The short-term impact of the Bank of England's hawkish stance on the British pound is limited, with market focus shifting to the upcoming UK-EU summit, where Prime Minister Starmer aims to promote closer UK-EU relations [1] - The GBP/USD exchange rate has recently fallen below its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50), indicating a prevailing bearish correction trend despite reaching oversold levels [1] - Any further upward movement in GBP/USD may be capped around 1.3340, with major resistance expected at 1.3405, while current trading is likely to remain within a range of 1.3220 to 1.3320 [2]