猪周期见底了吗？

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 23.13 points, a decrease of 0.68%, ending at 3380.82 points, with a trading volume of 461.29 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 167.77 points, down 1.62%, closing at 10186.45 points, with a trading volume of 691.11 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index decreased by 39.89 points, a drop of 1.91%, closing at 2043.25 points, with a trading volume of 315.82 billion yuan [1] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was less than 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 160 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Industry Performance - The breeding sector saw a significant rise, with the breeding ETF (159865) reaching a peak increase of 0.7% during the day and closing up 0.34% [2] - The breeding ETF has attracted considerable capital attention recently, recording inflows over the past five days [2] - The optimism in the industry is supported by improved performance of listed pig companies due to the recovery of the pig market last year [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is experiencing a near three-year capacity clearance, which is the foundation for the expected rise in pig prices in 2024 [6] - As of April 2024, the number of breeding sows was 39.86 million, a decrease of about 10% from the peak of 43.90 million in June 2021 [6] - The demand side remains relatively inelastic, while the supply side shows greater elasticity [6] Cost Control and Profitability - Cost optimization in pig farming companies has significantly improved, providing support for performance recovery [7] - The average cost for leading pig farming company Muyuan Foods has dropped to approximately 13 yuan per kilogram [7] - The recovery of profit margins is expected to enhance the asset-liability structure of companies in the industry, increasing resilience during the cyclical downturn [4] Future Outlook - Although it is too early to declare a turning point for pig prices, the breeding ETF (159865) remains worthy of attention as it is at a low point [5] - If pig prices begin to rise again, companies are likely to benefit from the widening "scissors difference" between rising prices and falling costs, potentially exceeding market profit expectations [5]