整理：美伊核谈判梳理——特朗普的“极限施压”终于压垮了伊朗的脊梁？

Group 1: Current Status of Iran's Nuclear Program - In 2018, the United States withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, leading Iran to gradually increase its enrichment levels and stockpiles [1] - By the end of 2024, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran had enriched uranium to 60%, approaching weapon-grade levels (≈90%) [1] Group 2: Indirect Negotiations between the US and Iran - The US demands the complete destruction of all Iranian centrifuges, requiring Iran to rely on imports for any future civilian nuclear energy needs [2] - Iran refuses to dismantle all its nuclear facilities, asserting its right to pursue peaceful nuclear activities [2] - The challenge of dismantling Iran's civilian nuclear facilities is highlighted by the irreversible knowledge Iran has gained in uranium enrichment, emphasizing the need for effective monitoring in future agreements [2] Group 3: Existing Enriched Uranium Stockpile - The US proposal includes the destruction or transfer of Iran's nuclear material stockpile to a third country, such as Russia [3] - Iran has opposed this proposal, preferring to retain its uranium reserves under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency to prevent a US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement [3] Group 4: Sanctions and Maximum Pressure - President Trump indicated that the US is willing to take military and economic actions if negotiations fail [4] - The White House National Security Advisor stated that each technical deadlock would be accompanied by new sanctions, with the US imposing eight rounds of sanctions against Iran from April to May [4] Group 5: Prospects for Negotiations - There is potential for an agreement where Iran commits to dismantling its high-enriched uranium stockpile in exchange for the US lifting all economic sanctions [5] Group 6: Internal and External Challenges - Iran's economy is severely impacted by international sanctions, with the rial plummeting below 1 million in early April [6] - A significant explosion occurred at Iran's largest commercial port during the third round of nuclear talks, possibly involving ballistic missile solid fuel [6] - There are significant divisions between hardliners and moderates within Iran, exacerbated by the port explosion [6] - Long-term sanctions, power shortages, and soaring inflation have led to near paralysis of the domestic economy, increasing public discontent [6] - Iran's allies have also faced severe setbacks, including devastating blows to Hamas and Hezbollah, and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria [6]