Lockheed Martin(US:LMT) ZACKSยท2025-05-15 13:41Core Viewpoint - Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) has experienced a significant decline in share price, dropping 15.9% over the past six months, underperforming compared to the aerospace-defense industry and the broader market [1][2]. Company Performance - LMT's stock performance has lagged behind competitors like Boeing and Embraer, which saw share price increases of 46% and 31%, respectively, in the same timeframe [2]. - The loss of a key contract for the U.S. Air Force's next-generation fighter jet to Boeing in March 2025 has contributed to a decline in investor confidence [4]. - Recent downgrades from analysts, including Bank of America and Royal Bank of Canada, have further pressured LMT's stock price [5]. Growth Prospects - The global defense industry is expected to grow steadily, with a projected 3.7% CAGR for the global fighter aircraft market from 2025 to 2030, creating opportunities for defense contractors like Lockheed [6]. - Lockheed's F-35 remains a leading fighter jet, with production expected to continue for many years, supported by U.S. government inventory targets [7]. - The consensus estimate for LMT's long-term earnings growth rate is 10.5%, indicating potential for recovery [8]. Sales and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LMT's sales in 2025 and 2026 suggests year-over-year growth of 4.6% and 3.9%, respectively [10]. - Near-term earnings estimates show a decline, but the 2026 earnings estimate indicates a potential rise of 9.4% [10][11]. - Current sales estimates for 2025 are projected at $74.32 billion, with a slight increase to $77.18 billion in 2026 [12]. Industry Challenges - Labor shortages pose significant challenges for Lockheed and other aerospace-defense companies, with an attrition rate of 13% reported over the past two years, well above the national average [16][17]. - High debt-to-capital ratio of 73.63 indicates a reliance on debt financing, which may increase financial risk and burden cash flow [19].