鲍威尔：美联储考虑调整货币政策框架，重新审视就业“不足”定义与通胀目标实现路径

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is considering adjustments to its monetary policy framework, particularly regarding its views on employment shortfalls and achieving inflation targets [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Framework Review - Federal Reserve officials have initiated a review of the long-term strategy for implementing monetary policy, which includes the communication tools used to guide the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in achieving price stability and maximum employment [1][2]. - The current framework was designed during a period of low interest rates and low inflation, and there is a need to ensure that any new consensus statement can adapt to a wide range of economic conditions [1][2]. Group 2: Inflation Targeting - The Federal Reserve's inflation target remains set at 2%, with a focus on anchoring long-term inflation expectations around this target [2]. - The review will reflect the significant changes in the economic environment since 2020, indicating that the previous assumptions about the zero lower bound on interest rates are no longer fundamental [2]. Group 3: Employment Shortfall Definition - The review has led to an adjustment in the definition of "employment shortfall," shifting the focus to periods of high unemployment rather than equally weighing high and low unemployment rates [2]. - This change reduces the tendency for preemptive interest rate hikes aimed at cooling the labor market before inflation pressures arise [2]. Group 4: Response to Inflation - The Federal Reserve's previous framework has been criticized for not responding timely to inflation post-pandemic, with some observers suggesting that the focus on employment targets contributed to this delay [2][3]. - Powell refuted claims that the policy framework caused a lag in response, stating that officials initially judged the inflation caused by the pandemic to be temporary [3]. Group 5: Timeline for Review Completion - The Federal Reserve intends to complete the current framework review by the end of summer this year [4].