ZACKSยท2025-05-15 16:26Core Viewpoint - Alcoa Corporation (AA) and Constellium SE (CSTM) are key players in the aluminum sector, with high aluminum prices driven by global economic uncertainties and trade tensions, making them relevant for investors in the Zacks Metal Products - Distribution industry [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - Aluminum has gained attractiveness as an investment due to the rising demand for lighter and energy-efficient electric vehicles, recycled aluminum, and rechargeable batteries, alongside a recovery in global air travel boosting demand for aluminum alloys [2] - The demand for aluminum is increasing as industries focus on sustainability and efficiency [2] Group 2: Alcoa Corporation (AA) - Alcoa's Aluminum segment is expected to produce 2.3-2.5 million tonnes in 2025, with shipments anticipated between 2.6-2.8 million tonnes, despite recent challenges [6] - The Alumina segment is benefiting from the popularity of its low-carbon EcoLum primary aluminum, with production expected to be 9.5-9.7 million tonnes and shipments likely at 13.1-13.3 million tonnes in 2025 [7] - Alcoa's strategic actions, including the acquisition of Alumina Limited, aim to enhance its position as a leading bauxite and alumina producer, providing long-term value creation [8] - Alcoa's third-party shipments of alumina declined by 8% in Q1 2025, and total shipments from the Aluminum segment decreased by 5% sequentially [5] Group 3: Constellium SE (CSTM) - Constellium's Packaging & Automotive Rolled Products segment saw a 2% year-over-year increase in shipments to 269,000 metric tons in Q1 2025, with revenues rising 17% to $1.2 billion [9] - Total revenues for Constellium increased by 5% to $2 billion compared to the prior-year quarter, driven by strong demand and higher metal prices [10] - Constellium is investing in its production capacity and recycling capacity in France to leverage its market position [11][12] - The company has a share repurchase program of up to $300 million, with approximately $206 million remaining as of Q1 2025 [13] Group 4: Financial Performance and Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alcoa's 2025 sales implies a year-over-year growth of 4.3%, while EPS estimates indicate a significant increase of 164.4%, although estimates have been trending downward [15] - In contrast, Constellium's 2025 sales and EPS estimates imply year-over-year growth of 7.2% and 184.2%, respectively, with EPS estimates increasing over the past 60 days [16] - Alcoa's shares have lost 32.7% in the past six months, while Constellium's stock has gained 6.6% [18] - Alcoa is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 9.12X, below its three-year median of 14.47X, while Constellium's forward earnings multiple is at 9.54X, close to its median of 9.51X [19] Group 5: Conclusion - Alcoa's strength in electrical and packaging markets is hindered by production constraints and lower shipments, leading to cautious earnings estimates [21] - Constellium's robust performance in the Packaging & Automotive segment, along with growth investments and favorable earnings estimates, positions it as a more attractive investment option compared to Alcoa [22]