中信证券：美联储短期不会急于降息 预计后续10年期美债利率仍将在4.0%以上高位运行

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the current suspension of certain tariffs between the US and countries like China is expected to drive a new wave of imports, maintaining high resilience in US investment and consumption in Q2 [1] - Overall, the US economy is projected to remain supported in Q2, with the impact of tariffs likely to gradually manifest in the second half of the year. Early implementation of tax reduction policies could mitigate downward pressure [1] - Under the current tariff scenario, it is anticipated that the US will not experience runaway inflation due to the imposition of additional tariffs [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is not expected to rush into interest rate cuts in the short term, with projections indicating that the 10-year US Treasury yield will remain above 4.0% [1]