不锈钢：宏观改善盘面震荡 成本支撑供需矛盾仍存

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing stable prices with cautious purchasing behavior from major cities, while macroeconomic factors show slight improvement, but uncertainties remain [2]. Raw Materials - Nickel ore prices are expected to stabilize with 1.4% nickel ore FOB around 40, while domestic nickel iron prices remain weak and stable, with mainstream transactions at 940-950 yuan per nickel [1][2]. - The supply of nickel ore is tight due to seasonal impacts, and the price of chromium ore is supported by a shortage of spot sources [2]. Supply - Domestic stainless steel production is projected to be 3.4899 million tons in May, a decrease of 0.4% month-on-month but an increase of 5.8% year-on-year [1]. - The production of 300 series stainless steel is expected to be 1.776 million tons, down 2.6% month-on-month but up 7.5% year-on-year [1]. Inventory - Social inventory data remains stable, with a slight decrease in warehouse receipts recently. As of May 16, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 561,800 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons week-on-week [1]. - Stainless steel futures inventory is at 158,715 tons, a decrease of 970 tons week-on-week [1]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is slightly improved due to macroeconomic developments, but supply-demand imbalances persist, leading to ongoing pressure on the market [2]. - The overall market is expected to experience a range-bound trading pattern, with a reference range of 12,600 to 13,200 [3].