乙二醇市场有望走强

Core Viewpoint - Domestic ethylene glycol prices have experienced fluctuations in 2023, with a notable drop in early April, but a potential recovery is anticipated following positive developments in US-China trade talks [1][7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The apparent consumption and production of domestic ethylene glycol have been increasing, with consumption projected to rise from 18.7 million tons in 2020 to 24.87 million tons in 2024, driven by a combined increase in polyester production capacity of 17.61 million tons [2] - Domestic ethylene glycol production capacity is expected to grow from 15.54 million tons in 2020 to 27.92 million tons in 2024, leading to an oversupply situation and significant profit declines for companies [2] - The net import volume of ethylene glycol is decreasing, from 10.48 million tons in 2020 to an estimated 6.39 million tons in 2024 [2] Production and Capacity Outlook - Total supply of ethylene glycol is projected to exceed 26 million tons in 2024, with an additional 2.4 million tons expected to come online by 2025, bringing total capacity to 30.32 million tons [3] - Despite the anticipated growth in production and demand, the overall operating rate in the domestic market remains below 70%, with coal-based ethylene glycol facilities operating at around 50% due to ongoing losses [3] Raw Material Route Differences - The domestic oil-based ethylene glycol production accounts for two-thirds of total capacity, with recent declines in international oil prices leading to improved profit margins for naphtha-integrated production [4] - Coal-based ethylene glycol has faced negative profit margins for the past four years, but recent decreases in coal prices have reduced losses and improved operating rates [4] - The ethane-based production route benefits from lower raw material costs, but recent tariffs have impacted sourcing from the US, prompting companies to seek alternatives [4] Import Dependency Trends - The import dependency for ethylene glycol has decreased significantly, with recent figures showing a reliance of 25% to 30% [5] - In Q1 2023, total ethylene glycol imports reached 1.9626 million tons, a 42.73% increase year-on-year, with major suppliers being Saudi Arabia, the US, and Canada [5] - The market is expected to remain influenced by domestic supply variables and import quantity changes, with a likelihood of narrow fluctuations in prices [5] Future Market Expectations - Recent financial policies and US-China diplomatic engagements are expected to stabilize and potentially increase ethylene glycol prices [6][7] - Analysts predict that despite supply-side pressures, upcoming maintenance schedules and reduced port arrivals may support price recovery, with a strong demand outlook from the polyester sector [7] - The textile industry in China, accounting for approximately 50% of global production, is expected to benefit from improved cost structures and demand recovery, further supporting ethylene glycol consumption [7]