兴业证券：肉牛养殖周期有望迎来向上拐点 牛肉价格已筑底回升

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the domestic beef market supply is expected to tighten marginally by 2025 due to capacity reduction and rising import prices, indicating a potential upward turning point for the industry, with beef prices having bottomed out and starting to recover [1] - The beef farming cycle is longer compared to dairy farming, with beef cattle taking 38 months from conception to market, while dairy cattle take at least 2 years from calf to lactation, leading to slower recovery in supply after capacity reduction [1] - The domestic beef and milk production has shown significant growth post-2018, driven by rapid consumption increase and industry capacity expansion, although both still require imports to supplement supply [2] Group 2 - The beef and dairy industries in China exhibit clear cyclical patterns, influenced significantly by supply and demand factors, with beef experiencing three cycles of approximately 7 years and dairy about 4-6 years [3] - Following a decline in prices due to slowed consumption growth and expanded industry capacity since 2022, the beef and milk prices have dropped, with beef industry experiencing 18 months of losses and a 4.4% year-on-year decline in stock by the end of 2024 [4] - The dairy sector has faced 16 months of continuous losses, with a 2.8% year-on-year decline in milk production expected in 2024, but a potential recovery in raw milk prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025 if demand improves [4]