兴业证券：红利巩固安全边际 家电出海构筑成长空间

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities indicates that the home appliance sector is expected to benefit from continued national subsidies and a favorable domestic demand environment, with leading companies in the industry poised to gain from both domestic and international markets [1] Group 1: Home Appliance Sector Overview - The home appliance sector is anticipated to see sustained improvement in domestic demand due to ongoing national subsidies, with a year-on-year increase of 19.3% in retail sales of home appliances in Q1 2025 [1] - Export growth is expected to remain resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in export value and 13.1% in volume for home appliances in Q1 2025, driven by emerging markets and a "grab export" effect [1] - The average dividend yield for the home appliance industry is 3.3%, ranking second among 31 primary industries, indicating a strong defensive attribute for the sector [1] Group 2: White Goods - The white goods segment is benefiting from national subsidy policies and a favorable real estate environment, with expectations for increased sales elasticity in Q2 and Q3 [2] - Leading brands are expected to outperform second-tier brands in terms of sales, with structural upgrades in product offerings enhancing profitability for top companies [2] - Despite potential short-term disruptions due to tariff fluctuations, domestic white goods leaders have established overseas production capabilities to mitigate trade barriers [2] Group 3: Color TVs - The domestic color TV market is experiencing a recovery trend, supported by national subsidies and the upcoming U.S. sports events, which are expected to stabilize demand [3] - Domestic brands are focusing on high-end product offerings, while overseas production capabilities are reducing tariff risks, allowing for market share gains against Korean competitors [3] Group 4: Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen appliance sector is closely linked to the real estate market, with ongoing policy support expected to enhance demand and improve valuations [4] - The continuation of national subsidies is anticipated to further stimulate demand, leading to gradual improvements in the sector's fundamentals [4] Group 5: Small Appliances - The small appliance sector is projected to recover significantly due to national subsidies, with a notable increase in demand expected in early 2025 as more product categories are included [5] - The industry is entering a concentrated replacement cycle, driven by the average product lifespan of 3-5 years, which is expected to boost growth for leading small appliance manufacturers [5] - Short-term export orders may face volatility due to U.S. trade tariffs, but the reliance of the U.S. kitchen appliance industry on Chinese supply chains is expected to favor leading manufacturers [5] Group 6: Robotic Vacuums - The robotic vacuum segment is showing strong growth potential, with Q1 2025 data indicating it is one of the most elastic consumer categories benefiting from national subsidies [6] - The domestic market is expected to see accelerated penetration rates as product prices reach attractive levels, with significant sales elasticity anticipated throughout the year [6] Group 7: Export Outlook for Robotic Vacuums - The demand for robotic vacuums in overseas markets remains uncertain due to U.S. trade tariffs and economic conditions, but leading Chinese brands are expected to capture market share in the mid-to-low-end price segments [7] - The potential exit of foreign brands and smaller Chinese brands due to tariffs may create new expansion opportunities for established Chinese brands [7]