二季度供应过剩局面不改 短期锂价预计震荡

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a downturn, particularly in lithium carbonate futures, which have seen a significant decline in price [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 16, lithium carbonate futures have dropped by 3.84%, trading at 62,020 yuan/ton [1] - The spot market for battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 63,350 yuan/ton, down by 1,300 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate is at 62,500 yuan/ton, down by 900 yuan/ton [2] Group 2: Inventory and Supply - Overall inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased by 500 tons to 132,000 tons, with downstream inventory down by 3,000 tons to 42,000 tons, while smelter inventory has increased by 3,800 tons to 55,000 tons [2] - The second quarter is expected to see a continued oversupply of lithium carbonate, with high inventories of both lithium ore and lithium salt [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Outlook - The current trading in the spot market is sluggish, with lithium salt manufacturers reluctant to lower prices despite increased supply and rising imports [3] - The outlook for lithium prices is expected to be volatile in the short term, influenced by U.S.-China trade talks that may benefit energy storage battery exports [3]