日本央行9月前料维稳 年底前有望加息

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate continues to decline, currently at 145.2130, down 0.28%, influenced by a weaker dollar index due to poor economic data and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, alongside rising expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike [1] - A recent survey indicates that most economists expect the Bank of Japan to maintain interest rates until September to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs, with slightly over half anticipating at least a 25 basis point hike by the end of the year [1][2] - The survey, conducted from May 7 to 13 among 62 economists, reflects the Bank of Japan policymakers' view that while U.S. tariffs have disrupted markets, they have not completely derailed efforts to gradually tighten monetary policy [1] Group 2 - 95% of economists surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to keep rates unchanged at the June policy meeting, with 67% predicting the benchmark rate will remain at 0.5% until September, an increase from about 36% in the previous month [2] - The implied volatility of the USD/JPY exchange rate rose from a low of 9.5% to 11.3%, indicating increased demand for downside protection against the dollar, particularly beyond the three-month period following the U.S.-China tariff pause [2] - Technical analysis suggests that if the USD/JPY breaks below the psychological level of 145.00, it could lead to a decline towards the 144.55 area, with further support at approximately 144.30, which corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci level [3]