下游终端出口回落 铅价短期保持高位盘整态势

Core Viewpoint - The lead futures market is experiencing a slight decline, with the main contract down 0.62% and trading at 16,895.00 yuan, indicating a weak market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Jinrui Futures suggests that the lead price will fluctuate within the range of 16,700 to 17,200 yuan, supported by a decrease in overseas lead inventory and a warming macroeconomic environment [2]. - New Lake Futures emphasizes a range-bound trading strategy due to stable production from primary lead smelters and a decline in imported lead ore treatment charges [3]. - Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures notes that the lead price is expected to maintain a high-level consolidation in the short term, influenced by delivery impacts and inventory pressures [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side shows stable production from primary lead smelters, while the recycling sector faces challenges with rising losses and low operating rates due to reduced battery scrap inventory [3]. - Demand for lead-acid batteries has increased post-holiday but remains below pre-holiday levels, contributing to downward pressure on orders during the off-season [3]. - Overall, the combination of seasonal demand weakness and reduced export activity creates significant upward pressure on lead prices, despite strong long-term cost support [3][4].