特朗普希望油价低于50美元？美国能源部长有不同意见

Core Viewpoint - The current oil prices are deemed unsustainable for U.S. oil and gas producers, with a critical threshold identified around $60-62 per barrel for WTI crude oil production viability [1][5]. Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - Analysts suggest that President Trump's preference for WTI crude oil prices is around $40-50 per barrel, which is considered unrealistic by industry experts [1]. - As of the latest reports, Brent crude is priced at $63.46 per barrel and WTI at $60.58 per barrel, both down approximately 15% year-to-date [1]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil production from 13.465 million barrels per day to 13.367 million barrels per day, marking a decline of 264,000 barrels per day from the historical peak [3]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The ongoing decline in international oil prices is putting significant pressure on U.S. oil and gas producers, particularly those in the higher-cost shale oil sector [3]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. has decreased, with a total of 578 rigs reported, down by 25 from the previous year, and oil drilling platforms at 474, down by 22 [3]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also revised down its expectations for U.S. shale oil production [3]. Group 3: Political and Regulatory Context - Industry executives are seeking tariff exemptions for oilfield equipment and are advocating for OPEC+ to limit production to stabilize prices [4]. - Trump's administration has historically supported the fossil fuel industry, with significant financial contributions from major oil companies during his campaign [5]. - There are internal disagreements within the Trump administration regarding the sustainability of oil prices below $50 per barrel, with some officials emphasizing the need to eliminate regulatory barriers instead [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that a balanced oil price around $60 per barrel could help manage domestic inflation while encouraging U.S. oil and gas production [6]. - The current stance of Trump on energy issues indicates a preference for lower prices over high production levels, which aligns with concerns expressed by oil industry executives [6].