How Should You Play Nebius Stock Going Into Q1 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is set to report its Q1 2025 results, with expectations of a loss of 45 cents per share and total revenues of $63.8 million [1][3]. Company Overview - Nebius is an Amsterdam-based AI infrastructure company, focusing on an AI-powered cloud platform for intensive AI and ML workloads [2]. Earnings Prediction - The current Earnings ESP for NBIS is -7.87%, and it holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating a lack of strong earnings beat potential [4][3]. Strategic Focus - Nebius is expanding its data center footprint and GPU deployments in the U.S. and Europe, including a new 300 MW data center in New Jersey expected to be completed by summer 2025 [5][6]. - The company is also enhancing its global sales and marketing efforts, particularly in the U.S. market, to support revenue growth [6]. Product Offerings - Apart from its core cloud platform, Nebius offers Toloka (AI development), TripleTen (edtech), and Avride (autonomous vehicle platform), with Toloka seeing a 140% revenue growth in 2024 [7]. Market Challenges - The company faces a challenging macroeconomic environment and increasing customer selectivity, which may impact revenue growth [9]. - Nebius is investing heavily in capacity expansion, which could pressure margins in the near term [9]. Competitive Landscape - Nebius is a new entrant in the AI cloud infrastructure market, competing against established players like Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet, which dominate the market [10]. Stock Performance - Nebius shares have declined by 19.5% over the past three months, underperforming the broader technology sector [11]. - The stock has also lagged behind peers like Microsoft, which has gained 10.7% during the same period [12]. Valuation Metrics - NBIS shares are trading at a Price/Book ratio of 2.59X, lower than the industry average of 4.12, indicating potential risk [13]. Investment Outlook - Despite ongoing investments and growth potential in its platforms, significant margin pressure and competition cloud the outlook for NBIS [16]. - The current Zacks Rank 3 suggests that investors should wait for a better entry point, while existing investors may hold due to intact growth prospects [17].