券商股业绩与估值现“剪刀差” 市场向好或驱动板块迎来修复

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector, often seen as a "bull market flag bearer," is experiencing a divergence between strong performance and declining valuations, indicating a potential undervaluation and underweighting in the market [1][3]. Performance and Valuation - In Q1, the average daily trading volume of A-shares reached 15.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.58%, significantly supporting the revenue growth of listed brokerages [2]. - A total of 42 A-share listed brokerages achieved a combined operating income of 125.93 billion yuan in Q1, up 24.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 52.183 billion yuan, up 83.48% year-on-year [2]. - Despite the strong performance, the brokerage sector's market performance has been disappointing, with a cumulative decline of 7.58% as of May 16, 2023, and only 6 out of 42 brokerage stocks showing an increase [2]. Underestimation and Market Sentiment - Analysts indicate that the brokerage sector is currently undervalued, with a price-to-book ratio of approximately 1.21, placing it in the 16.96% percentile over the past decade [3]. - The proportion of active equity public funds holding brokerage stocks was about 0.37% in Q1, marking a historical low [3]. - Factors beyond fundamental performance, including macroeconomic conditions and non-fundamental elements, are also influencing the sector's valuation [3]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect a recovery in the brokerage sector's valuations, driven by improved liquidity and favorable policies, with significant growth opportunities anticipated [5]. - Projections for 2025 suggest a 13% year-on-year increase in net profit for the securities industry, with brokerage income expected to rise by 35% [5]. - The recovery of the primary market and continued strength in the secondary market are expected to stabilize the brokerage's investment banking and asset management businesses [6]. Investment Opportunities - Analysts recommend focusing on brokerage firms with good Q1 fundamentals and expectations for mergers and acquisitions, as these firms are likely to present long-term investment value [6]. - The ongoing supportive policies from the capital market are expected to benefit leading brokerages with strong balance sheet management and stable growth [6].