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【财经分析】关税缓冲期促前置出货热潮 新加坡出口复苏仍存挑战
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-05-17 11:43

Core Viewpoint - Singapore's Non-oil Domestic Exports (NODX) saw a significant year-on-year increase of 12.4% in April 2025, marking the largest monthly rise in nearly nine months, although this growth is influenced by short-term factors and may face downward pressure in the coming months [1][2][4] Group 1: Export Performance - NODX growth in April was driven by a remarkable 23.5% increase in electronic products, with personal computer exports surging by 124.3%, and integrated circuits and magnetic disk media products growing by 23.3% and 33.0% respectively [1] - Non-electronic products also experienced growth, with an overall increase of 9.3%, particularly highlighted by a substantial 80.4% rise in non-monetary gold exports [1][2] - The NODX to Indonesia increased by 111.2%, while exports to Taiwan and South Korea rose by 47.4% and 38.1% respectively, indicating strong demand for ships, gold, and computers [2] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Risks - The Chief Economist of OCBC noted that the April NODX growth was primarily due to front-loading of electronic product shipments ahead of a tariff exemption announcement, suggesting potential risks of a decline in exports if a long-term agreement is not reached between the US and China [2][3] - UOB's research report indicated that the April export rebound exhibited typical policy-driven characteristics, with a 58.9% year-on-year surge in non-oil re-exports, reflecting supply chain adjustments in anticipation of policy changes [3] - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has significantly downgraded its global trade growth forecast for 2025 from 3.0% to 0.2%, citing renewed trade tensions between the US and China as a key factor [3][4] Group 3: Manufacturing and Economic Growth - Singapore's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has shown weakness, with some sub-indices falling below the neutral line, indicating underlying fragility in the manufacturing sector [5] - The Ministry of Trade and Industry revised its economic growth forecast for the year down from 1% to 3% to a range of 0% to 2%, reflecting concerns over future export performance and economic activity [6]