美股盘后重磅利空来袭！反弹能否走得更远

Economic Outlook - Consumer concerns about the economic impact of tariffs are rising, with inflation expectations for the next year reaching the highest level since 1981 [1][4] - The recent drop in consumer confidence index to 50.8 indicates a continuous decline for five months, reflecting consumer sentiment amid economic uncertainty [3][4] - The U.S. retail sales growth in April was only 0.1%, a significant drop from the previous month's 1.7% increase, suggesting cautious consumer behavior due to trade tensions [3][4] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve may maintain stable interest rates in the short term due to rising inflation expectations, with the potential for price increases driven by tariffs [4][5] - Recent inflation data shows the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.3% and core CPI at 2.8%, indicating a cooling trend in inflation [3][5] - The Federal Reserve is expected to delay any interest rate cuts until September, as indicated by futures markets [5][6] Market Performance - The U.S. stock market experienced a strong rebound, with the S&P 500 index recovering losses, driven by positive sentiment from trade talks [1][6] - Technology stocks led the market surge with an 8.1% increase, while consumer discretionary and communication services sectors also performed well [6][7] - Despite the rebound, concerns remain about high valuations, with the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 reaching 22 times [6][7] Credit Rating Impact - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting increased government debt and interest payment ratios, which may raise borrowing costs [7] - The downgrade comes amid heightened uncertainty in financial markets due to tariff policies, raising concerns about a potential economic slowdown [7]