迈克尔·斯宾塞：实行剔除美国之外的全球化体系是可能的

Group 1 - Michael Spence highlighted that the U.S. withdrawal from the WHO and climate agreements indicates a retreat from sustainable development agendas, leading to three potential scenarios for the future [1] - The most likely scenario is a mixed one, where a multilateral system is supported by Europe, China, and other major emerging markets, as the economic weight of emerging markets is gradually increasing [1] - Spence noted that the trade negotiations are showing positive changes, with the negative effects on consumer confidence in the U.S. economy being a significant concern [3] Group 2 - The uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is emphasized, with current inflationary pressures easing but ongoing tariff policies raising questions about necessary countermeasures [3] - Spence mentioned that the recent developments in AI technology, particularly the rise of open-source AI models, are having a positive impact on the global economy [3] - The report from Stanford indicates that the gap between the U.S. and China in AI technology is rapidly narrowing, with both countries focusing on smaller models that are more cost-effective [3]