Alibaba Shares Fall Despite Accelerating AI Growth. Is It Time to Buy the Dip?

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's stock has had a strong start to 2025, up approximately 45% year-to-date, despite a disappointing fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report [1] E-commerce Business - Alibaba's e-commerce segment, which includes Tmall and Taobao, is crucial to its operations and has shown signs of recovery after facing challenges from a weak Chinese economy and competition from Pinduoduo [4][5] - In fiscal 2025 Q4, e-commerce revenue grew 9% year-over-year to $14 billion, with a notable 12% growth in its third-party business [6] - The e-commerce segment's EBITA increased by 8% to $5.8 billion, indicating profitable growth, with strong new customer acquisition and a rise in orders [7] - The company is investing in "instant commerce" to deliver items within an hour, targeting a potential market of 1 billion consumers [8] Cloud Computing Segment - The cloud-computing segment experienced an 18% revenue growth in the quarter, reaching $4.2 billion, with AI products gaining broader adoption [9] - Adjusted EBITA for the cloud segment surged 69% to $333 million, reflecting strong operational leverage [9] Overall Financial Performance - Alibaba's total revenue increased by 7% to $32.6 billion, while adjusted EBITA rose 36% to $4.5 billion [11] - Adjusted earnings per American depositary share climbed 23% to $1.73, and operating cash flow increased by 18% to $3.8 billion [11] - Free cash flow saw a significant decline of 76% to $516 million due to heavy investments in data center infrastructure, but the company generated $10.2 billion in free cash flow for the fiscal year [11] Balance Sheet and Future Outlook - As of the end of the quarter, Alibaba had $51.6 billion in cash and short-term investments, $31.8 billion in debt, and $56.6 billion in equity and other investments [12] - The company is focused on turning its international commerce segment profitable, which could enhance overall profitability [10][14] - With a forward price-to-earnings ratio of around 12 times fiscal 2026 estimates, the stock is considered a good buying opportunity despite not being as cheap as in the previous year [15]