香港中文大学施康：把握内需“主动力”，消费创新潜力大

Core Viewpoint - Chinese companies are facing increased difficulties in expanding overseas due to heightened external tariff impacts and global supply chain adjustments, necessitating a shift towards new international markets and emphasizing economic reforms to better unleash domestic consumption potential [1][3]. Group 1: Challenges and Opportunities - The impact of tariff increases has hindered Chinese exports to the U.S., despite a temporary 90-day lower tariff window, leading companies to consider exploring emerging international markets or focusing on domestic demand [3]. - China is aware of how to respond to external shocks like trade wars, and even in adverse scenarios, the vast domestic consumption market can sustain economic growth [3]. Group 2: Economic Transition - The Chinese government recognizes the need to transition from an export-driven economy to a consumption-driven one, which is essential for both current growth stabilization and long-term high-quality development [3]. - There is significant potential for innovation in Chinese consumption, with new consumer demands being met by an evolving supply landscape, as evidenced by recent trends in various consumption sectors [3]. Group 3: Policy Initiatives - Various regions in China are implementing local consumption promotion plans based on the national "Consumption Promotion Action Plan" issued in March, focusing on optimizing new consumption supply [4]. - The government is also working to enhance consumer confidence by improving the social security system and has prioritized consumption in the 2025 government work report, allocating 300 billion yuan for initiatives like trade-in programs for consumer goods [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - While some policies may have uncertain short-term effects, the long-term impact is expected to be positive, with gradual changes requiring time to materialize [5]. - As new policy effects continue to unfold and market confidence improves, the internal economic momentum in China is anticipated to strengthen, leading to a positive economic outlook [5].