易方达基金刘健维：不做一条路走到底的预判

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "certainty" in investment, particularly in the context of growth investing, where uncertainty is prevalent. The focus is on selecting industries and companies with favorable supply-demand dynamics and investing at reasonable valuations to achieve better risk-reward ratios [1][15]. Investment Strategy - The investment approach is characterized by a focus on growth stocks, particularly during the "1-10" phase of industry cycles, where companies experience significant revenue growth and performance realization [3][9]. - The manager highlights the necessity of buying stocks at good prices, as even excellent companies can lead to losses if purchased during overvaluation periods [13][14]. - The strategy involves continuous monitoring of industry cycles and company fundamentals to adapt to rapid changes in the market [4][5]. Industry Insights - The manager has observed that many industries have their own supply-demand cycles, which are influenced by macroeconomic conditions and industry transformations. This cyclical nature is crucial for understanding investment opportunities [2][8]. - The article discusses the importance of recognizing the "1-10" stage in industries, where demand drives growth, and the subsequent phases where supply-demand imbalances can lead to price declines [9][10]. Risk Management - The focus on minimizing drawdowns is highlighted, as not all market pullbacks can be recovered. The manager aims to control volatility and maintain a balanced portfolio across different sectors to mitigate risks [16][17]. - The article mentions the importance of diversifying investments to avoid excessive exposure to any single industry, especially during downturns [16][17]. Market Trends - The manager reflects on past market cycles, particularly in the technology and renewable energy sectors, noting the volatility and the emergence of "ten-bagger" stocks that can subsequently decline significantly [2][12]. - The transition from renewable energy investments to artificial intelligence is discussed, indicating a strategic shift based on market conditions and emerging opportunities [12].