贝莱德基金刘鑫： 看好中短债确定性 关注科创债机会

Core Viewpoint - In the current macro environment of relatively loose funding and low interest rates, pure bond funds may become a good investment tool for stable returns amid market volatility [1] Group 1: Bond Market Outlook - Short and medium-term bond yields (1-3 years) are expected to show a downward trend, while long-term bond yields (over 10 years) may experience volatility influenced by policy, with overall direction also trending downwards [1][2] - The current 10-year government bond yield still implies an unfulfilled rate cut expectation of 20 to 30 basis points, indicating potential adjustment pressure on long-term yields if policy strength does not meet market expectations [2] - The investment certainty in the domestic bond market is viewed positively, with the trend of declining social financing costs supporting the value of short and medium-term bonds [2] Group 2: Credit Bonds and Investment Strategies - Credit risk for state-owned enterprise bonds and local government financing bonds is manageable under the "debt reduction" policy, providing a basis for investors to achieve excess returns through selective credit strategies [2] - The 2-3 year AA+ rated bonds still hold certain allocation value, while the credit spread for 3-5 year high-grade credit bonds (AAA rated) is above the historical 50th percentile, indicating potential value [2] - The trend of liquidity is becoming a key factor affecting bond market performance, with investors increasingly favoring trading over holding to maturity to enhance returns [3] Group 3: Technology Innovation Bonds - Recent announcements from regulatory bodies support the issuance of technology innovation bonds, indicating a potential increase in market demand for such bonds [4] - The establishment of a "technology board" in the bond market aims to promote the high-quality development of technology innovation company bonds, encouraging investment in this sector [4] - The pricing of technology innovation bonds may be lower than that of ordinary bonds from the same issuer, reflecting a growing market interest driven by policy support [4][5] Group 4: Investment Timing and Strategy - The current period is considered a favorable time for bond investment due to the realization of interest rate cuts and marginal improvements in overseas disturbances [6] - The newly launched BlackRock Anze 60-day holding period bond fund focuses on pure bond investment strategies, suitable for risk-averse investors seeking stable returns [6] - The investment team utilizes a combination of local and global research platforms to identify opportunities in the bond market, aiming for a favorable risk-return ratio [6][7]