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世界银行近期发布报告显示——东南亚经济前景受美关税战拖累
Jing Ji Ri Bao·2025-05-18 21:55

Group 1 - The World Bank reports that the East Asia and Pacific region is facing economic challenges due to rising global economic policy uncertainty, increased trade restrictions, and slowing growth in major economies, leading to reduced investment and consumer confidence [1] - Economic growth in the region is projected to slow to 4.0% by 2025, down from a previous forecast of 4.4%, with Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia expected to grow at 5.8%, 5.3%, and 4.7% respectively, while Myanmar may experience a 1% economic contraction [1] - The global economic uncertainty index reached its highest level since 1997 in January, and the trade policy uncertainty index hit its highest since 1960 in February, indicating significant impacts on personal consumption and investment growth [1] Group 2 - The outlook for regional development is further dampened by worsening trade policies, a sharp global economic slowdown, financial market volatility, and escalating geopolitical tensions, which could severely impact export-oriented economies like Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam [2] - Declining commodity prices may affect resource-exporting countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Laos, while high interest rates in developed economies pose greater risks to smaller economies reliant on external financing [2] - The depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah, capital outflows from the stock market, and rising bond yields since late 2024 reflect investor caution in the region [2] Group 3 - The World Bank suggests that the trend of global economic integration may be changing, with trade as a percentage of global GDP rising from under 40% in 1990 to around 60% before the 2008 financial crisis, and Southeast Asian countries experiencing even faster growth in trade share [3] - Countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, and Indonesia have seen their share in global trade increase from 2017 to 2023, but they face mounting pressure from protectionist measures taken by major economies even before the current trade war [3] - To address the changing globalization trend and long-term challenges like climate change, the World Bank calls for technological transformation, domestic reforms, and deeper international and regional cooperation, highlighting agreements like RCEP, CPTPP, and DEFA as effective responses [3]