透景生命(300642)：业绩承压 自研+并购丰富产品管线

Core Viewpoint - The company faced significant revenue decline in 2024 due to market environment changes and centralized procurement policies, impacting its financial performance and product sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 437 million yuan, a decrease of 19.53% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 35 million yuan, down 61.37% [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 116 million yuan, a decline of 18.19%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 10 million yuan, down 78.19% [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 75 million yuan, a decrease of 19.53%, but the company achieved a net profit of 470,000 yuan, marking a return to profitability [1]. Market Impact - The implementation of centralized procurement led to a significant drop in revenue from HPV products, which saw a year-on-year decline of 31.38% [2]. - Revenue from third-party testing clients decreased by 51.17% due to price sensitivity, while direct sales to third-party and screening clients fell by 31.76% [2]. - Revenue from hospital clients, which are less affected by centralized procurement, declined by 13.70%, indicating a more stable revenue stream compared to other client segments [2]. R&D and Strategic Initiatives - The company increased its R&D expenditure to 15.05% of revenue, focusing on over 70 projects across various technology platforms [3]. - Clinical research for cervical cancer screening and expansion of methylation detection sample types were completed in 2024 [3]. - The company entered the fungal detection field through acquisitions and invested in dry eye disease and AI sectors, enhancing its innovation pipeline [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued pressure in Q1 2025 due to industry policies and reduced HPV usage among price-sensitive clients [3]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 40 million, 50 million, and 60 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.7%, 27.2%, and 32.9% respectively [3]. - The company's reasonable market value is estimated at 2.6 billion yuan, with a target price of 16 yuan per share, maintaining a "recommended" rating [3].