黄金时间·一周金市回顾：市场情绪快速转换 短期金价大幅波动难免

Core Viewpoint - The rapid warming of market risk appetite has led to a significant decline in international gold prices during the week of May 12-16, with a drop of $124.29 or 3.74%, marking the worst week since November of the previous year [1] Market Dynamics - The optimism surrounding trade relations and the delayed expectations for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts are the primary reasons for the weakening gold prices [1][2] - The recent slowdown in U.S. inflation data, coupled with economic data falling short of expectations, has reinforced the anticipation of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, helping gold prices maintain above the $3200 per ounce mark [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan dropped significantly to 50.8 in May, down from 52.2 in April and below the market expectation of 53.4, marking the lowest level since June 2022 [4] - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that inflation may become more volatile and that the Fed is adjusting its overall policy framework in response to significant changes in the economic environment since 2020 [3] Geopolitical Factors - The easing of geopolitical tensions, such as the maintenance of the India-Pakistan ceasefire and the resumption of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, has contributed to a decrease in market anxiety [2][6] - However, the path to peace remains challenging, and the geopolitical landscape continues to influence market sentiment [5] Credit Rating Impact - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to increasing government debt and interest payment ratios, which may lead to further fluctuations in gold prices [7] Market Positioning - There are signs of renewed bullish sentiment in the gold market, with an increase in open interest in gold futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [8] - Despite a decrease in speculative net long positions, there was a slight increase in long positions after seven weeks of decline, indicating potential market recovery [8] Technical Analysis - Gold prices rebounded after dipping to $3120 per ounce, with resistance levels identified between $3263 and $3293 per ounce, and critical support at the $3200 mark [8]