中美贸易休战提振前景 澳洲联储有望年内第二次降息

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to announce a second interest rate cut this year, reducing the cash rate to a two-year low of 3.85% due to easing price pressures and a temporary thaw in US-China trade tensions [1][3] - Economists and the money market anticipate a 25 basis point cut, while RBA Governor Michele Bullock may not indicate further cuts after the decision [1][3] - Recent stronger-than-expected price and labor data, along with a 90-day trade truce between the US and China, have increased the likelihood of a hawkish rate cut in May [1][3] Group 2 - Since the RBA's March meeting, inflation has exceeded expectations, wages have unexpectedly accelerated, and the job market remains tight, leading to a market expectation of two additional rate cuts [3] - The RBA will also release its latest quarterly macroeconomic forecasts, with expectations of downward revisions for inflation, GDP, and employment growth [3] - The RBA's officials are likely to emphasize the tight labor market and the discomfort of wage growth exceeding 3% amid zero productivity growth [3] Group 3 - Analysts describe the RBA's current policy stance as being in a "purgatory" state, with calls for a "hawkish rate cut" [4] - Some economists believe that maintaining the interest rate at 4.1% is a credible scenario for the RBA [4] - The RBA's approach to balancing price growth and labor market sustainability has faced criticism, but it appears to have been effective, with core inflation returning to the target range of 2-3% for the first time in over three years [3]