贝莱德：人工智能主题似乎将继续推动美股走强

Group 1 - BlackRock anticipates a supply-driven economic contraction in the U.S. but sees opportunities created by AI, increased fiscal spending, and higher interest rates, leading to a positive outlook on developed market equities despite potential volatility [1] - European financial stocks have risen by 20% due to the high interest rate environment, while Spain's stock market is favored due to its low exposure to U.S. tariffs, with only 5% of exports directed to the U.S. [1][6] - Gold is outperforming U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset, potentially benefiting from increased demand due to new banking regulations [1][6] Group 2 - BlackRock has revised down the S&P 500 earnings growth forecast from 14% in January to 8.5%, indicating a larger-than-average decline as economic activity slows [4] - The firm believes that the economic activity may rebound quickly if U.S.-China tariffs are reduced, creating specific opportunities across various sectors and regions [4] - AI is expected to continue driving earnings growth, with the "Big Seven" tech companies seeing a 30% increase in earnings compared to 8% for other market companies [4] Group 3 - Three key themes emerged from BlackRock's Q1 earnings reports: companies are shifting production to the U.S. or allied countries, many are accepting higher input costs due to supply chain adjustments, and 60% of companies updating spending plans are guiding below consensus forecasts [5] - Despite the challenges, large tech companies are confirming or increasing investments related to AI, indicating a strong starting position for U.S. firms [5] Group 4 - BlackRock upgraded its rating on European stocks to neutral due to infrastructure and defense spending plans, although execution remains critical [6] - The European Stoxx 600 index has performed similarly to the S&P 500 since the tariff announcement, with 2025 earnings expectations dropping from 8% to 3.5% [6] - Financial stocks in Europe have risen over 20% this year, supported by strong balance sheets amid high yields [6] Group 5 - BlackRock favors infrastructure stocks due to attractive relative valuations and significant forces at play, predicting that private credit will gain market share as banks withdraw [10] - The firm prefers developed market government bonds over investment-grade credit, particularly U.S. short to medium-term bonds and UK gilt bonds [10] - Emerging markets, especially India and Saudi Arabia, are seen as providing opportunities, while Japan is favored due to returning inflation and corporate reforms [10] Group 6 - Five major forces are reshaping current and future investments: demographic differences, digital disruption and AI, geopolitical divisions, evolving financial frameworks, and the transition to a low-carbon economy [11]