Jin Tou Wang·2025-05-19 06:09Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market shows mixed performance, with the European shipping index futures experiencing a volatile upward trend, indicating a potential for continued fluctuations in the near term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The European shipping index futures opened at 2195.0 points, reaching a high of 2419.7 points and a low of 2190.0 points, resulting in a 2.19% increase [1]. - The overall market sentiment has shifted, with previous macroeconomic influences largely exhausted, leading to expectations of a short-term consolidation in price movements [1]. Group 2: Price Forecasts and Influences - Multiple shipping companies have announced June pricing for the European line exceeding $3000 per FEU, with Maersk's pricing being a critical indicator for market stability [2]. - The estimated capacity for the European line in the second week of June is projected to drop to 265,000 TEU, although the average weekly capacity may still hold at 290,000 TEU when including pending vessels [2]. - A potential shortage of container equipment due to a surge in demand could become a new variable influencing price increases [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Trade Considerations - The geopolitical landscape remains volatile, with the trade war situation showing short-term improvement, which may positively affect demand for the European shipping index [2]. - Egypt's recent announcement of a 15% transit fee discount for large container ships aims to attract traffic back to the Red Sea route, although a return to normalcy for major shipping lines may take time [2].