穆迪降级引发震动！30年期美债收益率升至5%，“抛售美国”交易卷土重来

Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 has intensified concerns regarding U.S. debt, leading to a rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which briefly reached the psychological level of 5% [1] Group 1: Impact of Credit Rating Downgrade - The downgrade is attributed to the expanding U.S. budget deficit, with little sign of contraction, as noted by Moody's [1] - Major investors are beginning to shift from U.S. Treasuries to other safe-haven assets, which may lead to rising debt servicing costs and a potential dangerous upward spiral in bond yields [2] - Analysts expect 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields to rise by an additional 5-10 basis points due to the downgrade [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 futures fell nearly 1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped by 1.2% following the downgrade announcement [3] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index is nearing its low from April, reflecting a pessimistic sentiment among options traders, the lowest in five years [2] Group 3: Economic Concerns - The U.S. federal budget deficit is approaching $2 trillion annually, exceeding 6% of GDP, with projections indicating that federal debt could surpass 107% of GDP by 2029 [4] - Moody's forecasts that the federal deficit will expand to nearly 9% of GDP by 2035, driven by increased debt interest payments and welfare spending [4] Group 4: Legislative Outlook - Despite the downgrade, there is an expectation that lawmakers will continue to push for a large tax and spending bill, potentially increasing federal debt by trillions [5] - Barclays analysts believe that the downgrade will not significantly alter congressional voting outcomes or trigger forced selling of U.S. Treasuries [5] Group 5: Foreign Investment Trends - Reports indicate that China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasuries in March, raising concerns about its decreasing exposure to U.S. debt and the dollar [5] - However, data from the U.S. Treasury shows strong foreign demand for U.S. government bonds, indicating no significant aversion from investors [5]