最新发布：22城新房+5城二手房涨价，二季度楼市怎么走？

Core Viewpoint - The number of cities with rising housing prices has significantly decreased after a brief period of recovery, indicating a potential cooling in the real estate market [1][2][6]. New Housing Market - In April 2025, 22 out of 70 major cities saw new housing prices increase, down from 24 in March [2][10]. - First-tier cities experienced mixed results, with Beijing and Shanghai seeing slight increases of 0.1% and 0.5%, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [2][10]. - The average price of new homes in first-tier cities fell by 2.1% year-on-year, with Shanghai showing a notable increase of 5.9% [5][10]. Second-Hand Housing Market - Only 5 cities reported increases in second-hand housing prices in April, a drop from 10 cities in March, with 64 cities experiencing price declines [2][10]. - The overall second-hand housing price index decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year [10][11]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw year-on-year declines of 1.0%, 0.6%, 7.4%, and 3.7% respectively [5][10]. Market Trends and Dynamics - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment, with core cities showing resilience in demand, while second-tier and third-tier cities face ongoing downward pressure due to high inventory and insufficient demand [6][7][8]. - The "price for volume" strategy is prevalent, particularly in the second-hand market, where prices are being pressured down due to an oversupply of listings [8][9]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with expectations for further policy support to stabilize buyer confidence and market activity [9][12]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while there are signs of stabilization, the recovery of the housing market will require a multi-faceted approach, including improved buyer confidence and economic conditions [9][12]. - The second quarter is expected to see a typical seasonal decline in prices, particularly in the second-hand market, as new supply impacts demand dynamics [11][12].