利空突袭！美债汇双杀

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1, raising concerns about U.S. debt credibility [1][9] - Following the downgrade, U.S. Treasury bond futures experienced significant declines, with long-term futures dropping over 1.1% and ultra-long-term futures falling over 1.6% [1][3] - The yields on 20-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds exceeded 5%, indicating rising borrowing costs [1][5] Group 2 - The downgrade is attributed to the increasing scale of U.S. government debt and interest payments, with projections suggesting that by 2035, federal debt could reach 134% of GDP [9] - The market is reacting to the potential for rising deficits, with the federal deficit expected to climb to 9% of GDP [9] - Analysts suggest that the downgrade could lead to a loss of confidence in U.S. Treasuries, exacerbated by ongoing fiscal challenges and political disputes over the debt ceiling [10][11] Group 3 - The market is currently facing structural demand declines for U.S. Treasuries, with expectations of interest rate cuts being hindered [10] - The recent "reciprocal tariffs" initiated in April have contributed to a broader market sell-off, raising doubts among global investors regarding U.S. debt [10][11] - Analysts recommend maintaining a range trading strategy in the short term, with potential for yield declines if economic data continues to weaken [10]