Industrial Securities(SH:601377) 智通财经网·2025-05-19 08:20Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities suggests that after a turbulent period, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to trend upwards starting in the second half of 2025, following the full digestion of tariff impacts on the Chinese economy [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market may maintain a "bottom-lifting large box oscillation" pattern before fully digesting tariff impacts, with potential for improvement in fundamentals and risk appetite thereafter [1] - The U.S. economy is projected to face a downturn in the second and third quarters of 2025, with persistent inflation and challenges in monetary policy affecting market confidence [3][4] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three strategic asset classes during the current period of international order restructuring: gold, military industry, and digital assets [2] - The focus on technology and new consumption sectors is highlighted, with an emphasis on distinguishing between genuine growth and market noise [8] - The upcoming peak period for the unlocking of restricted shares from April to September 2025 presents buying opportunities for genuine growth stocks, as adjustments from unlockings and reductions are seen as noise [7][8] Group 3: Sector Highlights - The report emphasizes the importance of new consumption trends, including service consumption, spiritual consumption, and AI consumption, which are expected to drive growth in the Chinese market [5] - The technology sector is noted for its breakthroughs, showcasing China's competitive strength in areas such as AI, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] Group 4: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The restructuring of the international order is expected to benefit the Hong Kong stock market, with a wave of quality companies listing and increased inflow of domestic and international capital [6] - The report anticipates a long-term bull market for Hong Kong stocks driven by the revaluation of Chinese assets and the influx of new economy companies [6][7] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests a strategic long position in the Hong Kong stock market, with a focus on both offensive and defensive measures [7] - The trend of "A-share characteristics" in Hong Kong is expected to enhance market activity, allowing for a broader range of investment opportunities beyond traditional blue-chip stocks [8]