Nan Fang Du Shi Bao·2025-05-19 08:20Core Viewpoint - The newly revised "Regulations on Strict Economy and Opposition to Waste by Party and Government Agencies" has been issued, which restricts high-end dining and alcohol consumption in official settings, leading to a decline in the liquor sector, particularly in the baijiu market [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Baijiu Industry - Following the announcement of the new regulations, several baijiu companies, including Yingjia Gongjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu, saw their stock prices drop by over 2%, with Jinshiyuan experiencing a decline of more than 3.5% [1]. - Analysts suggest that the impact of the new regulations on the baijiu industry will be limited, as the proportion of government consumption in baijiu sales has already decreased significantly, now accounting for less than 5% [1][2]. - The previous "Central Eight Regulations" have already reduced the share of government consumption in high-end baijiu, shifting the focus to business and residential demand [2]. Group 2: Historical Context of Regulations - The baijiu industry has faced multiple disruptions from "ban on alcohol" policies since 2011, with significant impacts noted after the introduction of the "Central Eight Regulations" [2][3]. - The government has implemented strict measures against public alcohol consumption, which has historically affected high-end baijiu sales, but the current market dynamics show a shift towards business and residential consumption [2][3]. Group 3: Business Wine Market Challenges - The decline in the public wine market has forced companies to focus on the business wine segment, which primarily consists of mid-to-high-end products [4]. - Major baijiu companies have adjusted their product structures, with a significant portion of revenue now coming from mid-to-high-end products [5]. - However, the business wine market is facing challenges, with reports indicating a substantial decrease in business consumption frequency and overall sales, with some companies experiencing a 20%-50% decline in performance [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Many baijiu companies are proactively lowering their performance targets for 2025 to alleviate pressure, contrasting with previous years' growth ambitions [6]. - Companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao have adjusted their revenue growth expectations to align more closely with macroeconomic indicators [6].