LPR公布前夕，广州、厦门等地“逆势”上调房贷利率，还有哪些城市可能跟进？

Core Viewpoint - Recent adjustments in mortgage rates in cities like Guangzhou and Xiamen indicate a potential strategy to maintain stability in the face of expected LPR reductions, with banks aiming to keep rates above 3% to avoid profit erosion [1][2][3] Group 1: Mortgage Rate Adjustments - Guangzhou has raised the first home loan interest rate from LPR-60 basis points to LPR-50 basis points, increasing the rate from 3.0% to 3.1% [1] - Xiamen has also adjusted its mortgage rates, increasing the first home loan interest rate from LPR-50 basis points to LPR-45 basis points, resulting in a rise from 3.10% to 3.15% [1] - The adjustments are seen as a proactive measure to prevent rates from falling below 3% in anticipation of a potential LPR decrease [2][3] Group 2: Implications of LPR Changes - Analysts suggest that if LPR decreases by 10 basis points, many cities could see mortgage rates drop into the "2" range, enhancing affordability and accessibility for borrowers [3] - The current mortgage rate environment is historically low, and banks are adjusting rates to maintain stability while still allowing for potential LPR reductions [2][3] Group 3: Banking Sector Impact - A decline in mortgage rates could pressure banks' net interest margins, with the average mortgage rate for new loans nearing 3% following LPR adjustments [4] - The net interest margin for commercial banks is projected to fall to 1.52% by the end of 2024, marking a historical low, prompting regulatory attention on banks' profitability [5]