“关税战”后全球贸易再平衡：要给银行以缓冲｜2025五道口金融论坛

Group 1: Impact of Tariff Policies - The tariff policies introduced by the Trump administration have raised significant concerns regarding the cost-benefit balance in trade and investment, with new factors such as geopolitical and ideological considerations now influencing decisions [2][4] - The uncertainty surrounding these policies is expected to hinder the return of manufacturing to the U.S., as American competitiveness in labor-intensive industries remains weak [2] - The global trade rebalancing is anticipated to lead to profound adjustments in the economic structures of major economies, necessitating a focus on internal economic adjustments to effectively address trade imbalances [4] Group 2: Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 down from 3.3% to 2.8%, with a projected growth of 3% for 2026, largely due to the impact of U.S. tariff measures and policy uncertainties [6] - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been in a state of low growth or stagnation since the financial crisis, particularly exacerbated by trade protectionism and the pandemic, with a notable decline in investment data over the past three years [6][7] Group 3: Resilience of Chinese Enterprises - Chinese enterprises have shown remarkable resilience, with over $3 trillion in foreign direct investment stock from 2014 to 2024, indicating strong participation in international markets [8][10] - The shift from labor-intensive industries to more technologically advanced enterprises has enhanced the investment capabilities of Chinese firms, contributing to local industrialization in host countries [10] - Chinese companies are increasingly establishing industrial parks abroad, fostering clusters of enterprises and contributing to local infrastructure development, which enhances their global investment footprint [10][11] Group 4: Strategies for Companies - Companies are advised to develop "immunity" through compliance with legal regulations, which is essential in uncertain environments [12] - Resilience in supply chains and the ability to self-develop core components are critical for companies to navigate external changes effectively [12] - Emphasizing digital transformation and resource linkage capabilities will enable companies to quickly adapt and seize market opportunities [12]