专家热议多元货币体系，建议IMF扩大SDR篮子

Core Viewpoint - The global monetary system is undergoing significant transformation, with discussions around "de-dollarization" and the role of the Renminbi (RMB) in the future monetary landscape gaining traction [1][2][3]. Group 1: Global Monetary System Challenges - The U.S. dollar, as the cornerstone of the global monetary system, is facing historic challenges, particularly due to unilateral policies from the Trump administration, which have undermined the dollar's credibility as a trade settlement and reserve currency [2][3]. - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds peaked at 4.5% and 30-year bonds surpassed 5%, indicating volatility in U.S. debt markets [2]. - The dollar index fell below 99 for the first time since April 2022, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [2]. Group 2: Emerging Market Responses - Emerging market central banks are increasingly diversifying their reserves by accumulating gold and adjusting asset allocations to reduce reliance on the dollar [3]. - The trend of increasing gold reserves among central banks, including China, has been amplified by geopolitical uncertainties and dollar volatility [3]. - Although the dollar still constitutes 60% of global foreign exchange reserves, the transition to a new financial order is anticipated to take decades [3][4]. Group 3: Potential Competitors to the Dollar - The internationalization of currencies like the RMB and Euro is progressing, positioning them as potential competitors to the dollar [5][6]. - The RMB has made strides in global settlement, although it is not yet fully convertible; its internationalization is supported by initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank [6][8]. - Experts suggest that the Eurozone needs to establish a fiscal union and enhance financial integration to bolster the Euro's position [6]. Group 4: Future Pathways for Global Monetary System - There is a call for a multilateral mechanism to reshape the international system, potentially leveraging regional institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank [7]. - Experts advocate for gradual reforms, suggesting that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should consider expanding the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket to include more currencies, thereby increasing the RMB's weight [8]. - Balancing competition and cooperation among major economies is essential for a stable transition to a multipolar monetary system [8].