Will Milder Weather Keep Natural Gas Prices Under Pressure?

Industry Overview - The U.S. Energy Department reported a lower-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies, with stockpiles rising by 110 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended May 9, compared to analysts' expectations of 111 Bcf [2] - Total natural gas stocks reached 2,255 Bcf, which is 375 Bcf (14.3%) below the 2024 level but 57 Bcf (2.6%) higher than the five-year average [3] - Natural gas futures fell about 12% during the week, ending at $3.343/MMBtu, the lowest in two weeks, due to mild weather leading to subdued demand [4] Company Focus - Expand Energy (EXE): The largest natural gas producer in the U.S. after the Chesapeake-Southwestern merger, with significant assets in the Haynesville and Marcellus basins. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2025 earnings per share indicates a 458.2% year-over-year surge, with an 18.7% increase in estimates over the past 60 days [7][8] - Coterra Energy (CTRA): An independent upstream operator with a focus on natural gas, owning approximately 183,000 net acres in the Marcellus Shale. The expected earnings per share growth rate for Coterra is 20.3% over three to five years, compared to the industry's 17.8% [9][10] - Excelerate Energy (EE): Specializes in LNG infrastructure and services, representing 20% of the global Floating Storage Regasification Units (FSRUs) fleet. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its 2025 earnings per share indicates a 10.2% year-over-year growth [11][12]