Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell Snowflake Stock Before Q1 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Snowflake is expected to report strong fiscal Q1 2026 results, with projected revenues of $1 billion and earnings of 22 cents per share, indicating significant year-over-year growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Snowflake's Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue is $1 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 21.13% [1]. - The earnings consensus is 22 cents per share, unchanged over the past 30 days, indicating a 57.14% year-over-year growth [1]. - Snowflake's product revenues for Q1 fiscal 2026 are expected to be in the range of $955-$960 million, suggesting a year-over-year growth of 21-22% [5]. Customer Growth and Retention - As of January 31, 2025, Snowflake had 11,159 customers, up from 9,384 a year earlier, with 745 being part of the Forbes Global 2000 [5]. - The net revenue retention rate stood at 126% as of January 31, 2025, indicating strong customer loyalty and expansion [4]. Product and Technology Advancements - Snowflake's investments in AI and machine learning, including the introduction of Cortex AI, have driven customer engagement, with over 4,000 customers using these technologies weekly [6]. - The company has enhanced its AI Data Cloud by integrating core capabilities with Apache Iceberg tables, improving query performance and data sharing [13]. Market Performance - Snowflake shares have increased by 18.5% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector, which has decreased by 1.4% [7]. - The stock is currently trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 12.81X, significantly higher than the sector average of 6.18X, indicating potential overvaluation [10][11]. Strategic Partnerships - Snowflake's partnerships with major companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and NVIDIA are expected to drive growth through enhanced product integrations and collaborative sales efforts [15][16][18]. - The expanded partnership with Microsoft aims to integrate OpenAI's models into Snowflake's offerings, enhancing productivity through AI-driven insights [16]. Challenges and Considerations - The company anticipates a tougher year-over-year revenue comparison due to the impact of the leap year, which may affect top-line growth [19]. - Non-GAAP operating margins for Q1 fiscal 2026 are expected to be impacted by approximately $15 million in expenses related to the annual sales kickoff event [20].