Stride Stock Soars 49% YTD: Should Investors Buy Now or Wait?

Core Viewpoint - Stride, Inc. (LRN) has demonstrated strong stock performance with a 48.7% increase year-to-date, significantly outperforming the Zacks Schools industry and the broader market [1][3]. Enrollment Growth - The company has experienced record enrollment growth, particularly in its Career Learning segment, with overall enrollment increasing by 20% year-over-year [4][5]. - Enrollment in General Education grew by 12.8% to 137,500 students, while Career Learning enrollment surged by 32% to 96,000 students [4]. Revenue Performance - Stride's total revenues for the first nine months of fiscal 2025 reached $1.75 billion, reflecting a 16.3$2.37 billion and $2.385 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of 16.2$2.04 billion reported in fiscal 2024 [7]. Future Outlook - Stride is focusing on achieving its fiscal 2028 targets, projecting revenues between $2.70 billion and$3.30 billion, which represents a 10% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from fiscal 2023 [10]. - Adjusted operating income is expected to be between $415 million and$585 million, with a projected CAGR of 20% [10]. Market Trends - The demand for career education and online program alternatives is driving Stride's growth, supported by its diverse product offerings and strategic initiatives [2][4]. - The favorable regulatory environment under the current administration is expected to further benefit Stride's business model [11]. Earnings Estimates - Analysts have revised fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings estimates upward, with fiscal 2025 indicating a 51.2% year-over-year growth rate [12]. - Current earnings per share (EPS) estimates for fiscal 2025 are projected at $7.09, with a rise to$7.76 in fiscal 2026 [13]. Valuation - Stride is currently trading at a premium compared to its industry peers based on a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, reflecting strong market potential [17]. Investment Considerations - The combination of robust enrollment growth, strategic initiatives, and favorable market trends positions Stride well for future profitability [19][20]. - Investors are encouraged to consider adding Stride to their portfolios based on the positive technical indicators and market demand trends [21].