Charter's Proposed Cox Deal Could Challenge Comcast, Surpass AT&T In Broadband

Core Viewpoint - BofA Securities analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich maintains a Buy rating on Charter Communications, Inc. with a price target of $450, following the announcement of a merger with Cox Communications valued at$34.5 billion, which includes an equity purchase consideration of $21.9 billion and the assumption of$12.6 billion in Cox debt and lease obligations [1][2]. Group 1: Merger Details - The $21.9 billion equity consideration consists of$11.9 billion in common units, $6 billion in preferred units, and$4 billion in cash [2]. - The pro forma economic ownership of the combined entity will be 67% Charter, 23% Cox, and 10% Advance/Newhouse, with the transaction implying a ~6.44x EV/2025E EBITDA multiple before synergies [2]. - With an estimated $500 million in synergies, the EBITDA multiple is expected to drop below 6x by year three [2]. Group 2: Market Expansion - The merger will expand Charter's reach to 69.5 million passings, 37.6 million customers, and 35.9 million broadband subscribers, allowing for a more aggressive pursuit of mid-sized commercial and enterprise markets [3]. - Charter will be able to apply its pricing and packaging strategy across an additional 12.3 million passings [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The deal is not expected to face significant regulatory hurdles and is likely to close in mid-2026, as the companies do not have overlapping footprints [4]. - The merger's scale is only slightly larger than Comcast's 64 million passings, and the regulatory approval for the Time Warner Cable/Charter deal in 2015/2016 took less than 12 months [4]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Comcast is unlikely to present a competing bid due to a more challenging regulatory path [5]. - The merger is anticipated to enhance revenue growth across broadband, video, and mobile, improve margins, increase free cash flow, and reduce leverage, despite potential integration challenges [5].