欧盟能否对俄罗斯能源“断舍离”

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has announced a roadmap to completely eliminate its dependence on Russian energy by the end of 2027, aiming to reshape Europe's energy security and green future, although the plan faces significant uncertainties due to differing member state opinions, high economic costs, and turbulent international energy markets [1][4]. Group 1: Plan Overview - The EU's plan focuses on three main areas: cutting off Russian energy imports, transitioning energy structures, and enhancing market regulation to weaken Russia's influence [2]. - The EU aims to ban new natural gas contracts by the end of 2025 and terminate existing long-term agreements by the end of 2027, alongside measures to combat "shadow fleets" of oil tankers [2]. - The EU plans to enforce the use of green hydrogen in steel and chemical industries to reduce natural gas demand and accelerate the deployment of renewable energy [2]. Group 2: Support and Challenges - The EU's confidence stems from ongoing renewable energy projects like the North Sea wind triangle and Mediterranean solar corridor, with the U.S. currently supplying 45% of the EU's LNG imports [2]. - However, the plan faces challenges, including significant disparities in member states' energy needs, particularly from Eastern European countries like Hungary and Slovakia, which heavily rely on Russian energy [3]. - Rising energy costs could undermine the EU's economic competitiveness, leading to the risk of energy-intensive industries relocating to Asia and North America [3]. Group 3: Potential Outcomes - If successful, the EU could achieve a transition away from fossil fuels, but this may come at the cost of industrial hollowing and diminished public welfare [4]. - Conversely, failure could exacerbate economic recession and deepen geopolitical tensions, highlighting the EU's struggle amid crises related to geopolitics, climate, and economy [4].