纺织服装等产品重新对美出口带动 乙二醇价格有望走强

Core Viewpoint - Domestic ethylene glycol prices have experienced fluctuations in 2023, with a notable drop in early April, but a potential recovery is anticipated following positive developments in US-China trade talks [1][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The apparent consumption and production of domestic ethylene glycol have been increasing, with a projected demand growth of 590,000 tons from 2020 to 2024 due to the expansion of polyester production capacity [2]. - Domestic ethylene glycol production capacity is expected to rise from 15.54 million tons in 2020 to 27.92 million tons in 2024, leading to an oversupply situation and significant profit declines for companies [2]. - The overall operating rate for ethylene glycol production remains below 70%, with coal-based production facilities operating at around 50% due to ongoing losses [3]. Production Routes and Profitability - The production capacity of oil-based ethylene glycol accounts for two-thirds of the total capacity, and recent declines in international oil prices have improved profit margins for these facilities [4]. - Coal-based ethylene glycol has faced negative profit margins for the past four years, but recent decreases in coal prices have reduced losses and improved operating rates [5]. - Ethane-based production has advantages due to lower raw material costs, but recent tariffs have impacted sourcing from the US, prompting companies to seek alternatives [5]. Import Trends - The reliance on imports for ethylene glycol has decreased, with the import dependency rate falling to 25%-30% in recent years [6]. - In Q1 2023, ethylene glycol imports totaled 1.9626 million tons, a 42.73% increase year-on-year, with major suppliers being Saudi Arabia, the US, and Canada [6]. Market Outlook - Recent financial policies and improved US-China relations are expected to stabilize and potentially increase ethylene glycol prices [7]. - Despite supply-side pressures from domestic facility restarts, upcoming maintenance schedules and reduced port arrivals are likely to support price recovery [8]. - The textile industry, which accounts for about 50% of global production, is expected to drive demand for ethylene glycol, especially with easing trade tensions [8].