钢材：工业材表需和库存转差 关注表需回落幅度

Supply - Iron element production shows signs of decline, with daily pig iron output decreasing by 0.87 million tons to 2.447 million tons; scrap steel daily consumption remains stable at 0.545 million tons. The total output of the five major materials decreased by 0.058 million tons to 8.684 million tons, with rebar production increasing by 0.03 million tons to 2.265 million tons, and hot-rolled coil production decreasing by 0.084 million tons to 3.12 million tons. Cumulative iron element production from January to April increased by 11.5 million tons year-on-year, with a daily increase of nearly 0.1 million tons [2] Demand - Demand for steel has been revised upward due to the May Day holiday, with total demand for the five major materials increasing by 0.687 million tons to 9.138 million tons. Rebar demand increased by 0.46 million tons to 2.603 million tons, and hot-rolled coil demand increased by 0.2 million tons to 3.295 million tons. Steel exports from January to April reached 37.89 million tons, an increase of 2.87 million tons year-on-year, with a daily increase of 0.024 million tons [3] Inventory - Steel inventory continues to show a trend of reduction, with total inventory of the five major materials decreasing by 0.45 million tons to 14.307 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 0.338 million tons to 6.2 million tons, and hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 0.1755 million tons to 3.476 million tons [4] Cost and Profit - Coking coal prices have decreased, leading to a slight increase in steel prices and an expansion of profits. The profit for rebar at integrated steel mills remains at 50 yuan per ton, while hot-rolled coil maintains a profit of 100 yuan per ton. Electric arc furnace steel mills face a cost of 3169 yuan for off-peak electricity, with rebar electric arc furnace mills currently in a loss position [5] Market Outlook - Weekly data indicates a decline in iron element production, but current inventory and profit levels are sufficient to support high pig iron production. Steel inventory is decreasing, but cold-rolled and coated inventory is accumulating. As the industry approaches the off-season, attention is shifting to the potential decline in industrial material demand. The cost side shows a continuous drop in carbon elements, negatively impacting steel prices. The industry is characterized by high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and a recovery in demand expectations. Seasonal off-peak demand and potential declines in manufacturing demand (exports) are anticipated. Technically, prices face resistance at the 40-day moving average, with a weak market outlook. However, the current demand decline is not significant, and exports remain high, suggesting a low-price fluctuation trend, with attention on support levels for rebar and hot-rolled coil at 3000 and 3150 yuan respectively. The recommendation is to remain cautious for now [6]